Here are my thoughts on the shitshow that was the 2020 Presidential election
Polls missed it again!
Pollsters in 2016 predicted Hillary Clinton would win but didn’t recognize how many people despised her. Instead third-party voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, whose vote totals were many times his margins over Hillary, handed the election to Trump. This time Biden won those three states.
Biden was supposed to win in a landslide and a Blue Wave was going to usher in a Democratic Congress to magically transform everything. So what happened?
Polls suffer from selection bias; they are only as good as the people who choose to answer them. I don’t answer any phone calls I don’t recognize and I’d rather slit my throat than talk to a pollster. But there’s a subset of the population – those on the far ends of the political spectrum – that will gladly tell anyone how they feel about the issues. The people in the middle, both Liberal and Conservative leaning, either doesn’t want to be bothered or don’t want to tip their hands.
I’m not sure polls have any practical use besides inducing false hope to some, despair to others, or a reason for the media to turn the election into a day at the greyhound track with Bugs Bunny.
The “Blue Wave” was a ripple.
Democrats overestimated their chances of defeating Republican incumbents. Anyone hoping for a major Democratic takeover of Congress ignored political reality. Every voter can choose ONE Congressional rep, TWO Senators and ONE President.. Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham were re-elected, despite being hated by millions. You can’t vote out another state’s candidates.
Progressives pinning all their hopes on Bernie or any other “progressive” candidates are delusional. You can elect Jesus Christ Himself to the Presidency, but as long as Moscow Mitch controls the Senate, you won’t get any closer to universal healthcare or free college.
Biden won without groveling to progressives.
I didn’t see or hear as much “the candidate needs to earn my vote!” bullshit that dominated the 2016 race. Maybe third-party voters realized the past four years of Trump were far worse than a Hillary Clinton presidency. I’m sure there are some who “held my nose” and reluctantly voted for Biden, but I don’t expect them to openly admit it.
But the progressive agenda may have cost Democrats House seats.
More than 72 million people voted for Trump, and they equate “progressivism” with socialism/communism. I can only guess as to their reasoning, but I think it’s a combination of viewing government as the enemy and not wanting “those people” getting something for nothing. Hispanics in Florida, especially Cuban-Americans, are and the Florida Democratic Party apparently did little to persuade them otherwise.
Conor Lamb, a 36-year-old moderate Democrat from Pennsylvania’s 17th district who won re-election in a Republican area, said:
“I’m giving you an honest account of what I’m hearing from my own constituents, which is that they are extremely frustrated by the message of defunding the police and banning fracking. And I, as a Democrat, am just as frustrated. Because those things aren’t just unpopular, they’re completely unrealistic, and they aren’t going to happen. And they amount to false promises by the people that call for them.”
We’re not likely to get universal health care or Medicare for All in my lifetime. It will require almost unanimous Congressional approval, a President willing to sign the legislation, and a Supreme Court willing to uphold it against the inevitable legal challenges. It will also need a comprehensive plan on how to transition a $4 trillion industry to a single payor as well as adequate funding in perpetuity.
I don’t see it happening until millennials, especially women, make up a sizeable proportion of Congress and we have a female president. We are headed in the right direction but change will be incremental, not radical. To paraphrase Paddy Bauler, Chicago 43rd ward alderman and barkeep, “The country ain’t ready for reform!”
Democrats need to win statehouses.
Republicans control more than half of the state legislative bodies in the US and that is where voting laws and redistricting happens. The Democrats failed to make any gains in 2020. Texas isn’t going to turn blue anytime soon. Georgia is probably more purple than blue. And there are a lot of crazy people in Michigan, where Republicans have been actively undermining Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s efforts to combat coronavirus.
All politics are local.
A lot gets decided at the state and local level. Arizona, Barry Goldwater’s home state and long a bastion of conservatism, legalized recreational marijuana and raised taxes on incomes over $250,000. Mississippi legalized medical marijuana and replaced the Stars and Bars on its state flag with the state flower. South Dakota legalized recreational and medical marijuana. Florida – Florida! – voted to increase the minimum wage to $15/hour over the next six years. So there is a glimmer of hope.
Don’t expect a honeymoon.
As of this writing, Trump has refused to concede. A lot of Trump supporters think the election was fraudulent and Biden will be an “illegitimate president.” Republicans, as with Obama, have no interest in reconciliation or cooperation.
Many of us on the other side aren’t willing to forgive or forget four years of animosity, ridicule and lies. Trump and his supporters vilified immmigrants, Muslims, people of color, Black Lives Matter, anti-fascists, liberals, intelligence and education. They cheered when a 17-year-old kid from Illinois killed two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin with an assault rifle, and then started a Go Fund Me page for his legal expenses. Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Leonard Pitts, Jr. put it this way:
“…Trump and his supporters broke this country, and it will take years to repair, if we ever do. They didn’t care then, and as far as I can tell, they don’t care now. So as an African-American student of history — and frankly, just as an American who loves the ideal of America, the truths held self-evident and more perfect union of America — I ask you not to ask me what I will do to reconcile with those people. Here’s a better question:
What will they do to reconcile with me?…”
Democrats need to stop preaching to the choir.
Biden and company need to figure out what conservative voters want and/or need and if it’s even possible. These are the people who thought that Trump contracting coronavirus showed courage rather than stupidity. They embrace authoritanianism; they want a dictatorship as long as it doesn’t affect them. In 2019, a woman in Florida, bemoaning the poor federal response to Hurricane Michael, said Trump was “not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.” Yes, some of your fellow Americans are that vindictive.
Trump won in 2016 by appealing to their sense of being neglected by both parties but did little or nothing for them. Coal jobs didn’t come back. His trade war with China crippled soybean farmers. Middle-aged white men, especially in the Mountain West, are dying by suicide at twice the national rate. Many of those people voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. The Democrats can win them back but not with progressive demands to defund the police, enact a Green New Deal and promising Medicare For All.
Otherwise, we risk Trump 2.0 in 2024, and that could truly be the end of the United States.
© Can Stock Photo / tintin75